PUNE: India should brace for a weak monsoon season as El Nino conditions are likely to develop, but before rains dry up, the ongoing wet spell will continue until June, weather scientists have forecast, casting a shadow on the rabi harvest and the planting of summer crops such as paddy
This is not the official monsoon forecast of India Meteorological Department (IMD), but the outlook prepared by the Pune-based Regional Climate Centre, which is a part of IMD. Forecasters from Australia, China, Korea and the US have issued El Nino warnings, but so far the Indian weather office has rubbished the concerns as western propaganda to rattle Indian markets.
Monsoon outlook is indeed sensitive for the economy and the market. Although the country has sufficient stock of foodgrain, a negative monsoon adversely affects the entire economy. In 2009, when an El Nino severely disrupted monsoon rains, India saw a sudden burst of food inflation, which continued relentlessly for years, forcing the Reserve Bank of India to keep interest rates high despite persistent protests by industry. Weak rainfall in the country in 2009 raised global sugar prices to the highest in decades, and this year the price of the sweetener in India, the world's second-largest producer, is already rising.
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