Monsoon may hit Andaman and Nicobar by May 20, may keep its date with Kerala for June 1

NEW DELHI: The advent of the south west monsoon -lifeline of Indian agriculture may be normal, with rains hitting the islands of Andaman and Nicobar by May 20th. Pre-monsoon showers have been lashing across the country since the past few weeks. 

According to Noida based Skymet Meteorology Division, there were mild indications of development of a low pressure area over north Andaman Sea towards the weekend. "The emergence of this weather system will coincide with the normal date of onset of monsoon in India over Andaman Islands which may receive its first monsoon rain by the 20th of May," said Jatin Singh CEO, Skymet. 

He added, "The monsoon should be able to keep its date with Kerala by June 1." The Indian weather office treats June 1 as the normal date for the monsoon arrival over the southern coast based on a time series rainfall data of over 100 years. 

The India Meteorology Department will be issuing its forecast for the onset of the monsoon on May 15. Meteorologists said the monsoon is likely to hit the southern tip of the country on time--the first week of June--but its progress across the Indian land mass could be delayed. 

In 2013, monsoon rains arrived at Andaman by May 17th advancing to Kerala coast by June 1 setting the stage for the four-month annual rainfall season. 

Meteorologist at Skymet say that the location and time is favourable for the strengthening of such weather system into a tropical storm or cyclone. "If the weather system does not weaken during the period or move quickly from its position, there are chances that it will turn into season's first tropical storm or cyclone in the Bay of Bengal," said Singh. 

he month of May is considered as a season of cyclones that emerge in the Bay of Bengal and move westward to bring pre-monsoon rain in India just before the arrival of the southwest monsoon in India.